Paper out at JMCB: "House Prices and Fundamentals – 355 Years of Evidence"

The Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking accepted one of my papers (joint work with Brent Ambrose and Piet Eichholtz) for publication. We investigate the long run equilibrium of rents and house prices. Abstract below. The full manuscript is available for download at SSRN.

This paper examines the long run relation between prices and rents for houses in Amsterdam from 1650 through 2005. We first demonstrate that these series are cointegrated, a necessary condition for studying movements of the rent-price ratio. We then estimate the deviation of house prices from fundamentals and find that these deviations can be persistent and long-lasting. Lastly, we look at the feedback mechanisms between housing market fundamentals and prices, and find that market correction of the mispricing occurs mainly through prices not rents. This correction back to equilibrium, however, can take decades.

Full paper…

Author: thies

University Senior Lecturer (Associate Professor) for Real Estate Finance, Cambridge