Taking the Long View: Interview in Land Lines Magazine

The Lincoln Institute of Land Policy’s Land Lines magazine published an interview with me this month. Jon Gorey asked me about some of the more counterintuitive findings that come out of century-spanning real estate data.

Two things tend to surprise people most. First: urban housing is actually less expensive today than it was 100 years ago, once you account for income growth. The story of a relentless affordability crisis looks very different when you zoom out far enough. That doesn’t mean there isn’t a real problem right now — there is — but the long-run trend is not the one most people assume.

Second: why do buyers consistently pay a premium for historical architectural styles? The instinctive answer is aesthetics — people just like the look of old buildings. The data suggest something else is going on. It seems to be less about the architecture itself and more about the signals that historical styles send: quality, durability, neighborhood stability. The style functions as a proxy for attributes that are hard to observe directly.

Both findings are good reminders of why historical data matter. A decade of observations can tell you a lot about cycles; a century of observations can tell you something about the underlying structure of markets.

The full interview is available on the Lincoln Institute website: Taking the Long View on Real Estate Investments